Coming off another exciting NBA season, this is the deepest draft class I’ve covered since launching the site. The Finals always teach us lessons about what wins at the highest level, but the goal of scouting isn’t to chase the current trend — it’s to identify what comes next.
A few trends that are important to keep in mind when evaluating this class:
- NIL is changing the shape of draft classes. More talented players are choosing to stay in college rather than risk falling into the uncertainty of day 2. As a result, second-round value continues to change, and teams are being forced to rethink how they evaluate players who may have developed outside the traditional one-and-done path.
- This is an older draft class than normal. More top prospects are staying in college longer, while younger players are taking longer development paths through high school or developmental leagues. Age and experience are becoming much bigger factors when projecting upside.
- Player development is harder to project than it used to be. With constant transferring, players are producing in drastically different environments year to year. Changes in role, coaching, and scheme from spot to spot can really alter a player’s statistical profile.
The teams that can combine this smaller sample size of college production with strong character evaluation and a true understanding of a player’s development path from interviews are going to find the players who outperform their slot.
As always, I’m here to give it my best shot. I added a comp for each player’s ceiling and floor so you can see how my rankings were finalized. Enjoy.
1. CAMERON BOOZER
Position: Wing | School: Duke | Year: Freshman | Age: 18 | Height: 6’10” | Weight: 253
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-NBA Mainstay
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Baby Jokic, Kevin Love
In a draft loaded with potential difference-makers, I’m surprised most of the conversation around Boozer centers on his high floor. That’s definitely there, but it undersells the upside he brings. He’s the youngest player in the class and comes from NBA pedigree, with real playmaking feel that’s shown up at every level. Even in Duke’s slower-paced, traditional big-heavy offense, he still consistently generated assists and handled the ball comfortably in space. At the next level, I see him as a connective offensive piece with real upside to run an offense from the nail. He plays off two feet, absorbs contact well, and makes advanced reads. Defensively, he uses a high basketball IQ to stay connected to two defenders (profiles well in pick & roll coverage) and has a knack for coming out of a crowd with a rebound. The swing skill is his shooting which should continue to come along, and if it does, you’re looking at someone who will be able to control the tempo on both ends of the court. While Boozer is a very “safe” pick to many at the top of the draft, I think we will look back in 5 years and be shocked that he wasn’t taken first.
2. AJ DYBANTSA
Position: Wing | School: BYU | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’9” | Weight: 217
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-Star Wing
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Tracy McGrady, RJ Barrett
There aren’t many players at his size who can score at all three levels the way Dybantsa does. He’s going to be explosive in the NBA from day one, with a relentless downhill mentality paired with a high release jumper. Beyond what he showed at BYU, where he led the nation in scoring, he also posted eye-popping testing numbers at the combine. He’s a smart, polished interview too, and I can easily see him becoming a vocal leader for whatever team drafts him. During the past season when upper classman Richie Saunders suffered a season ending injury, AJ had no problem stepping up for his team and initiating offensive sets that are very similar to what he’ll see in the NBA (tons of horns, DHOs, and stagger screens). The main swing skill for his ceiling is his shot diet. A big chunk of his offense comes from midrange jumpers, where he shot about 44%. For context, elite NBA midrange scorers like SGA are closer to 60%. If he can tighten that shot selection or improve efficiency as spacing improves, you’re looking at an elite engine at the next level.
3. DARRYN PETERSON
Position: Guard | School: Kansas | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’5” | Weight: 199
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-Star Guard
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Rip Hamilton
This is probably the toughest evaluation in the class, even though there’s no question about the skill level. Peterson has real touch, creation ability, and toughness as a shot-maker in the half court off movement. He was once a “Kobe-level” high school prospect, but his college season at Kansas was disrupted by cramping issues tied to an overload of creatine, which caused him to miss about a third of his games. That issue appears to be resolved, but it still adds real risk for teams. On tape, he brings perimeter defense, efficient shot selection, and real self-creation upside that absolutely belongs in top-pick conversations. Interview wise, he is more reserved and doesn’t project as a natural vocal leader, so fit and environment matter here. But if the health checks out, the talent is too strong to push him much lower.
4. BRAYDEN BURRIES
Position: Guard | School: Arizona | Year: Freshman | Age: 20 | Height: 6’5” | Weight: 215
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Impactful Starter
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Devin Booker, Eric Gordon
Burries is a lethal shooter with elite off-ball instincts and the athletic burst to turn small advantages into rim pressure. On a stacked Arizona team with limited spacing, he started slow but eventually took over as the primary scorer and did it with serious efficiency all the way to a Final Four run. Defensively, he competes well, uses his frame to stay in front, and pairs that with quick hands that show up in his steal rates. A unique note is his age: he’s one of the older freshmen in the class due to a high school transfer and repetition of his sophomore year. Still, once he hit high-level competition, he dominated. There’s two-way starter upside here, and I wouldn’t rule out an All-Star trajectory if everything breaks right.
5. DARIUS ACUFF JR.
Position: Guard | School: Arkansas | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’3” | Weight: 186
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Point Guard
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Allen Iverson, Dennis Smith Jr.
Acuff is coming off maybe the hottest freshman season in college basketball, bursting onto the scene at Arkansas and immediately establishing himself as one of the premier offensive players in the 2026 draft class. Acuff averaged close to 24 PPG while demonstrating the ability to score at all three levels. He constantly manipulated defenders, created space, and made an array of difficult shots from floaters, pull-ups, and three-point range. What really separated him from the pack of guards was that he was not just a ball-dominant pick-and-roll scorer. Playing alongside fellow freshman, Maleek Thomas, he showed the ability to impact the game off the ball as well with some of his biggest scoring explosions coming from movement and cutting rather than simply having the ball in his hands. His defense left a lot to be desired, although Arkansas placed an enormous offensive burden on his shoulders, and there were moments where it felt like he was catching his breath on that end. A hard-nosed kid from Detroit who has reportedly been putting together some of the most impressive workouts of the draft cycle, Acuff has a ceiling unlike any guard in this class. The floor may be lower than some of the other top prospects, but if I’m betting on a point guard, this is the type of bet I make.
6. CALEB WILSON
Position: Wing | School: North Carolina | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’11” | Weight: 211
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Stretch Big
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Evan Mobley, Marvin Bagley
Wilson enters the draft with one of the highest defensive ceilings in the class. His combination of size, athleticism, and versatility immediately makes him someone you can build around on that end of the floor. The thing that gets you excited about Caleb is that he flashed much more offensively than you would expect from someone with his measurements. Typically, a player like this is viewed as a defense-first prospect, but Wilson showed the ability to handle the ball in transition, make the right split second decisions, and provide connective passing in the half court. He dominated many of his matchups against the top prospects in this class and consistently played with a tremendous motor. The downside is that his jumper is a work in progress, so it will take time for NBA defenses to respect him with the ball in his hands. That said, his floor is incredibly high, and if he continues adding offensive versatility, the ceiling becomes extremely interesting.
7. MOREZ JOHNSON JR.
Position: Big | School: Michigan | Year: Sophomore | Age: 20 | Height: 6’10” | Weight: 251
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Stretch Big
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): What I Thought Precious Achiuwa Would Be, Precious Achiuwa
Following the combine, Morez became one of the analytical darlings of this draft class. After winning a National Championship at Michigan, Johnson has consistently been described by coaches as the tone setter in practice and the guy who brings intensity every single day. The first thing that stands out is his motor. He impacts winning through his instincts, physicality, and ability to dominate the glass. Any team that has struggled rebounding the basketball is going to be watching his tape and immediately falling in love. The offensive game still leaves a lot to be desired, but context matters. At Michigan, he played in a lineup that lacked ideal spacing, which made life difficult offensively. He has always been a solid free throw shooter and flashed the ability to shoot from three at the combine, which could completely change his projection. When drafting Morez Johnson, you’re not expecting an offensive hub, rather, you’re betting on one of the best defensive players in this class who may have enough offensive skill to eventually stretch the floor. T$, place your bets.
8. BENNETT STIRTZ
Position: Guard | School: Iowa | Year: Senior | Age: 22 | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 186
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Combo Guard
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Austin Reaves, Toney Douglas
Bennett Stirtz is this year’s Cedric Coward type of prospect; a player who came from a smaller level of competition but continued proving himself at every step while following Ben McCollum from D2 to Drake to Iowa. Stirtz played the role of old-school point guard who had the ball in his hands constantly, making decisions out of the pick-and-roll and conducting the offense on a string. He is a much better athlete than people expect for his profile and has consistently shown the ability to knock down jumpers. The interesting question is how his game translates without dominating the ball. During his college career, only around 2% of his shots came off the ball, but I actually think that will be where his NBA future lies. I tend to bet on highly skilled players with a chip on their shoulder, and Stirtz fits that mold. He understands that the NBA is different and he won’t simply dominate the ball the way he did in college. A team drafting him may think they’re getting a backup point guard, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually works his way into a starting two-guard role. Huge fan.
9. HANNES STEINBACH
Position: Big | School: Washington | Year: Freshman | Age: 20 | Height: 6’10” | Weight: 248
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Top 8 Rotation Big
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Isaiah Hartenstein, Meyers Leonard
It’s not too often that you see a freshman big come into college basketball with the size and physicality of Hannes Steinbach. Standing close to 6’10” and around 250 pounds, Steinbach is an old-school big who is extremely comfortable playing through contact in the post, but what makes him interesting is the movement and skill he brings beyond that. He has surprisingly quick feet, a great feel for the mid-range, and the ability to impact the game as both an offensive and defensive rebounder. We have seen in recent playoffs how important it is to have a big who doesn’t fear contact. The downside with Hannes is that he is not currently a great shooter from distance, although his solid free throw shooting projects some optimism that the shot can stretch to distance. His biggest challenge at the next level will be his lateral quickness and ability to survive when switched onto quicker guards. From my perspective, though, this is exactly the type of player who can become an important role player for the right NBA team.
10. YAXEL LENDEBORG
Position: Wing | School: Michigan | Year: Senior | Age: 23 | Height: 6’10” | Weight: 241
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Top 8 Rotation Swiss Army Knife
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Jalen Williams, Derrick Williams
Yax was already a highly regarded prospect last year but decided to transfer to Michigan for his senior season, entering this draft class as one of the oldest players. The elite skill that Yaxel brings is his overall strength. Offensively, he has no problem bullying his way into the paint, creating advantages, and making defenders uncomfortable when he gets two feet planted in the triple threat. Defensively, he is someone who can realistically switch one through five, while also bringing tremendous rebounding ability thanks to his huge wingspan. There have also been some concerns around his pre-draft process and health after dealing with an injury at the end of Michigan’s championship run and generally being a less than serious interview. But when you get to this point in the draft, I think there is a lot of value in taking someone who understands exactly who they are as a player.
11. CHRISTIAN ANDERSON
Position: Guard | School: Texas Tech | Year: Sophomore | Age: 20 | Height: 6’2” | Weight: 180
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Rotation Combo Guard
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Jamal Murray, Tre Mann
In today’s NBA, there are tons of different skills that matter, but maybe nothing more valuable than shooting the long ball. That is exactly what Christian Anderson provides in spades. He’s the best shooter in this class, and while his size reasonably raises some questions, he has shown the creativity and craft needed to overcome that. This past season, he developed into much more than just a shooter, showing the ability to run pick-and-roll actions and make plays with the ball in his hands (over 7 assists per game). At the NBA level, I see him as someone who can thrive either as a sixth man or alongside a bigger guard who allows him to operate in space. The biggest concern is whether he can avoid being targeted physically, but this is a quick-twitch athlete with one of the most valuable skills in basketball.
12. KINGSTON FLEMINGS
Position: Guard | School: Houston | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 183
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Rotation Defensive Guard
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Cason Wallace, Tyus Jones
It is not easy to step into Kelvin Sampson’s Houston program and produce as a freshman, but Flemings did exactly that. Not only did he lead the team in scoring, but he set their defensive tone at the point of attack. He is a smaller guard without overwhelming length, but his defensive instincts and toughness immediately stand out. From day one, he is going to be a player who impacts the game with his full-court pressure and competitive mentality. Offensively, his jump shot is a little unorthodox and takes time to get off, but he’s comfortable creating with the ball in his hands and has an impressive array of floaters and touch shots that should translate. The thing I like most about Kingston is his understanding of how he impacts winning. He knows his value comes from basketball IQ, toughness, and making the right play. At the end of the lottery, if you are looking for a bench guard or someone who can eventually play alongside a more dominant scorer, this feels like an excellent fit.
13. CAMERON CARR
Position: Wing | School: Baylor | Year: Sophomore | Age: 21 | Height: 6’6” | Weight: 184
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Rotation Spacing Marksman
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Mikel Bridges, Isaiah Joe
Cam Carr is coming off an outstanding season for an under-achieving Baylor team that saw him shoot 37% on over six 3s a game. From day one, what he offers is exactly what NBA teams are searching for: size, shooting, and defensive length. He enters the draft with nearly a 7-foot wingspan, giving him the physical tools to become a really impactful perimeter defender and fight through screens. Offensively, he understands his role and is someone who is going to provide value by spacing the floor, taking open shots, but also excels in transition. He has all the makings of someone who can become a really sticky defensive player along with clutch shot making. In a class with thin depth at the wing position, Carr moves up the big board.
14. MELEEK THOMAS
Position: Guard | School: Arkansas | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 190
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Rotation Playmaker
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker
This is the classic guard that I always fall in love with. A broad athletic frame, Meleek had an interesting freshman season at Arkansas where he entered the year as almost an equal or even higher-end prospect compared to Darius Acuff. The thing I loved about Meleek’s tape was his ability to adapt once his running mate really took off: he became a nearly 40% catch-and-shoot three-point shooter. He also embraced becoming more of a defensive stopper, using his wingspan and quick feet to fluster opponents. In the NBA, I think he’s someone who understands that he may need to earn minutes early as a defender, but the offensive talent is still there to eventually grow into a bigger role. You are going to see Thomas much higher on my board than consensus, and that’s because I’m always going to bet on tools, intangibles, and players who show the ability to mold themselves into whatever role a team needs. Anyone getting this guy at the end of the first round is going to be very happy with that selection.
15. KEATON WAGLER
Position: Guard | School: Illinois | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’6” | Weight: 188
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Rotation Combo Guard
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): D’Angelo Russell, Brandin Podziemski
Coming into Illinois, Wagler was not viewed as a top prospect, but he quickly changed that narrative as the team burst into the Final Four. He paced the Fightin’ Illini in a number of offensive categories and impressed me with how quickly he stepped into a leadership role despite being surrounded by experienced players. The biggest thing that stands out with Wagler is his shot-making ability. He’s an excellent ball handler out of the pick-and-roll and has the creativity to finish around the basket with an array of scoop shots, pull-ups, and floaters. The biggest question at the next level is his physicality. He will need to be put into a situation with enough plus athletes around him to create the spacing and advantages he requires. But when I look at Wagler, I see someone who can carve out a career as an NBA scorer, whether that comes as a sixth man or eventually as a starter. He has the skill level and confidence to make an impact.
16. KOA PEAT
Position: Wing | School: Arizona | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’8” | Weight: 245
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Spark Plug
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Josh Hart, Jeremy Sochan
Peat has become one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft after a difficult combine where his reworked jump shot drew plenty of attention for the wrong reasons (gave me Fultz PTSD). Alas, no one is drafting Peat for his shooting and instead focusing on his unique blend of size, agility, and physical tools that are going to translate immediately to the NBA. This is somebody who can realistically defend 1 through 5 and is going to be a pain in the ass to keep off the boards. Offensively, if he’s surrounded by shooting, he should be able to operate a bit more effectively than expected in the midrange. Overall, I’m betting on Koa’s ability to overpower smaller players and blow past larger ones. He’s not perfect, but if I were a GM with a playoff roster, I wouldn’t let him fall too far.
17. HENRI VEESAAR
Position: Big | School: North Carolina | Year: Junior | Age: 22 | Height: 7’0” | Weight: 227
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Rotational Stretch Center
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Marc Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon
Finally, the first center on the Big Board! What stands out immediately when watching Veesaar play compared to his peers is his poise. He was able to operate as a true offensive hub for North Carolina at times, using the top of the key as his home base and impacting the game via both scoring and playmaking. This is a big who can punish defenses that double with confident passing, while also making you pay for playing drop coverage against his screen. The next step will be proving he can survive defensively, especially if he can switch onto the perimeter and provide enough versatility to stay on the floor. If Henri passes that test, I think there is a path to become a starting center in the NBA.
18. ADAY MARA
Position: Big | School: Michigan | Year: Junior | Age: 21 | Height: 7’4” | Weight: 260
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Impactful Short Minutes Bench Big
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Donovan Clingan, Hasheem Thabeet
It’s a run on big men on the T$BB, and Mara is another one of the more polarizing prospects in this class. Mara is a gargantuan 7’4”, 260-pound center who has unique physical tools for his size: great hands, and he showed at the combine that he has much better foot speed than expected (his cone drill outperformed some guards). He is an expectedly dominant shot blocker, but he also showed the ability to stay in front of smaller players at times and use his mobility defensively around screens. The biggest concern with Aday is how his frame holds up over an 82 game season. He played a little over 20 minutes per game in college, and the demands of defending in today’s NBA are only going to increase. I will admit that I was previously wrong in thinking players like Mara and Zach Edey were not worth drafting, but I wouldn’t reach thinking that Mara is more than an energy big.
19. MIKEL BROWN JR.
Position: Guard | School: Louisville | Year: Freshman | Age: 20 | Height: 6’5” | Weight: 190
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Efficient Bench Scorer
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): LaMelo Ball, James Bouknight
This is the lottery ticket of the 2026 draft. Everything Mikel Brown did in college was spectacular, with a massive range of outcomes. Whether it was a 45-point explosion against NC State, some ridiculous highlight dunks against Kentucky, or passing chops through traffic that drop your jaw. But the other side of the coin was equally noticeable, including a 1-for-13 performance against Duke and a number of grotesque turnovers that made my head spin. It will take patience to develop Brown’s shot making alongside his laziness with the ball. When you combine that with a frame that doesn’t scream elite NBA lead guard and a lingering back injury that cost him roughly a third of the season, you get yourself down to #19. I’m prepared to eat my words, but I expect to see Brown making an impact in limited minutes over the course of his career.
20. NATE AMENT
Position: Wing | School: Tennessee | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’10” | Weight: 211
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Wing
Squint and You Can See Shades of: Zhaire Williams
At 6’10”, Nate Ament is a wing who can get his shot off over almost anybody in this class. The combination of his length, size, and shooting ability makes him one of the more intriguing physical profiles in the draft. What impressed me about Nate was that despite his frame, he was not just a perimeter player, demonstrated by how he battled through injuries during his lone season at Tennessee and showed a level of toughness and competitiveness against strong competition. The concern is that the production against elite opponents did not always match the physical tools, as he shot maddeningly low percentages from everywhere on the court. This is somebody who can theoretically stand toe-to-toe with some of the best wings in the NBA on measurement, but did not play with the confidence needed to become an elite offensive weapon. When drafting Nate, I think you have to plan on developing a player with a defined role; someone who understands where his shots come from and can impact the game without needing to overthink. The biggest concern would be putting too much creation responsibility on his shoulders too early. The roulette wheel of team fit will determine his fate.
21. KARIM LÓPEZ
Position: Wing | School: New Zealand | Year: International | Age: 19 | Height: 6’9” | Weight: 222
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Energy Wing
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Kelly Oubre, Tidjane Salaün
If you simply throw on the YouTube highlights for Karim, it’s easy to get fired up. He is one of the younger prospects in the draft that flashed the ability to snag tough rebounds, force turnovers, and destroy the rim on transition finishes. The issue that drops him into the 20s comes when you flip to NBL.com and watch an entire Breakers game replay. Iffy motor and and lack of skill questions abound for Lopez, but he benefits from having a good head on his shoulders along with tantalizing size/power (a front office with the gumption to follow through on developing him can unlock it). I think we’ll see the first Mexican born player to go on day 1 come draft night, and I just hope the team has a quality G League program to give him a fair shot.
22. EBUKA OKORIE
Position: Guard | School: Stanford | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’3” | Weight: 186
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Scoring Point Guard
Squint and You Can See Shades of: Tre Burke
Playing on an undermanned Stanford team during his lone college season, Okorie became the fulcrum of everything they did offensively. He was one of the top scorers in the country as a freshman and showed the ability to deliver regularly off high P&R sets. He is slight of frame and his passing outside on the move is mostly theoretical at this point. It’s easy to point to outliers like Tyrese Maxey and believe Ebuka can get there, but I’ve seen this player too many times and they typically wind up as a fine-but-unexciting bench role player or end up playing overseas.
23. ZUBY EJIOFOR
Position: Big | School: St. John’s | Year: Senior | Age: 22 | Height: 6’9” | Weight: 245
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Malleable Bench Role Player
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Draymond Green, Jordan Bell
The wide range in my two comps tells you a lot about my evaluation for Zuby. I tend to favor mature players who know how to fit into a team concept, but I acknowledge that at times a lack of athleticism can doom even the smartest player. In this case, I like his respectable high school ranking and his decision to transfer to St. Johns where he settled into a number of defined roles. As a senior, Zuby ran the show for a defensive-minded team but was not simply an old-man bruiser, finishing with touch all over the paint and switching up to guard level routinely on defense. If he is drafted by a team with high-level scoring, I’m excited to see if he can elevate the rotation using his grit and intangibles.
24. DAILYN SWAIN
Position: Wing | School: Texas | Year: Junior | Age: 20 | Height: 6’7” | Weight: 211
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Defensive Specialist
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Jaden McDaniels, Blake Wesley
Dailyn Swain had one of the more interesting paths in this draft class, spending his first two seasons at Xavier as a high-level defensive wing who provided toughness and rebounding before transferring to Texas and taking on much larger offensive expectations. In his junior year, Swain averaged 17 points per game using elite driving/cutting to rack up tough finishes and free throws. The “but” here is that he has not yet mastered the “3” part of the the 3&D profile, shooting below 30% during his career. His foul shot is over 80% and his mechanics don’t look broken, so there is upside here but the team that selects him should expect to wait for it rather than plugging him straight in.
25. JAYDEN QUAINTANCE
Position: Big | School: Kentucky | Year: Sophomore | Age: 18 | Height: 6’10” | Weight: 253
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Injuries Limit Career
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Smaller Mitchell Robinson, Smaller Greg Oden
Lottery ticket #2 arrives in the form of a behemoth in the paint with scary YouTube highlights. While he certainly “was a problem” at times during his 28 collegiate games (the St. Johns game this past season comes to mind), he tore his ACL his freshman season and was unable to bounce back last year. His draft position will be hard to predict without looking at his medicals, but even his agencies’ pre-draft hype videos show him repeatedly dunking without really landing on his surgically repaired knee (c’mon, Mike Miller). Maybe I’m glass half empty as an Embiid fan, but he is certainly a swing worth taking in the back end of the first round.
26. RICHIE SAUNDERS
Position: Wing | School: BYU | Year: Senior | Age: 24 | Height: 6’6” | Weight: 205
T$ Likely Player Outcome: 8-10th Man
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Jaime Jacquez, Kyle Singler
Saunders is a difficult player to sell because he enters the draft as one of the oldest prospects (nearly 25 years old) while also coming off a torn ACL. Stick with me here: if you’re drafting Richie at the back end of the first round, you’re not drafting him for upside — you’re drafting him because he’s the type of player every team needs to do the dirty work. At BYU, Richie was a ball of positively charged activity. He was the first player diving on the floor for loose balls and is a fantastic 3-point shooter. This won’t be a flashy pick, but if he’s on the court for your favorite team, I’m sure it will be additive.
27. LABARON PHILON JR.
Position: Guard | School: Alabama | Year: Sophomore | Age: 20 | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 176
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Crafty Bench Floor General
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Bones Hyland, Cam Payne
After testing the draft waters following his freshman season, Philon returned for his sophomore year and completely elevated his game. He became the primary facilitator for Alabama, improving his percentages across the board while also answering one of his biggest questions by becoming a more reliable shooter. He’s shifty with the ball in his hands, a fantastic pick-and-roll creator, and someone who can consistently put pressure on the defense. The biggest concern is his frame. After another year in college, he still didn’t add any strength, and at the NBA level he profiles to get pushed around. For me, Philon is an interesting curveball who could change games off the bench. I don’t see him as a starting point guard, so a team drafting him in the lottery (consensus) may be disappointed.
28. ALLEN GRAVES
Position: Wing | School: Santa Clara | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’9” | Weight: 226
T$ Likely Player Outcome: End of the Bench Marksman
Squint and You Can See Shades of: Georges Niang
Another player that the analytics department for teams will be banging the table for, Graves posted insanely productive block/steal rates in his freshman season at Santa Clara. He has a knack for being in the right place and shot the ball at a 40% clip from deep. The downside is that as competition ratcheted up for Santa Clara, his numbers and impact faded in lock step. He is admittedly a bit out of shape, so his age provides upside for a team that can get him on the right diet/exercise, but I don’t see the high end talent here to justify a higher pick even if he gets there.
29. ALEX KARABAN
Position: Wing | School: UConn | Year: Senior | Age: 23 | Height: 6’8” | Weight: 225
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Shooter & Hype Man
Squint and You Can See Shades of (Ceiling & Floor): Tristian De Silva, Glenn Robinson III
Following a stellar career at UConn that saw him win two National Championships and compete for a third, Alex Karaban enters this draft as a major connector without a standout elite skill besides “feel” for the game. He always seems to be in the right place, whether that is making the hockey assist that creates a basket, prying out a long rebound, or putting the exclamation point on a great possession that ends with a wide open 3. He’s not someone who is going to overwhelm you with athleticism or shot creation, but is the type of player where his box score +/- will consistently be higher than expected.
30. CHRIS CENAC JR.
Position: Big | School: Houston | Year: Freshman | Age: 19 | Height: 6’11” | Weight: 240
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Third String Bench Big
Squint and You Can See Shades of: Channing Frye
Cenac Jr. entered the year as a highly decorated recruit with expected lottery value, but was unable to put it together at Houston. He has really solid shooting mechanics and a plus rebound rate for his size, but he was the king of settling for tough shots in the half court. Like I mentioned with Kingston Flemings earlier, there wasn’t the most space to operate in Houston’s offense, but he was part of that problem. If a team can get him into the paint with more regularity then he could deliver a solid return on draft night, but I would say that is lower probability than other bigs in his class.
Top Second Rounders to Keep an Eye On