Year 6 of the world-famous T$BB….my word.
Fallout from a COVID-shortened season in the NCAA means more Sophomore/Juniors are emerging, while just about every person taller than 6’7″ is trying to prove they can master the open NBA game. Swirl that all and you have a draft with admittedly limited All-NBA potential, but tons of quality starters/role players across 58 picks (tampering doesn’t pay, Miami and Milwaukee).
Takes, commence.
1. paolo banchero
Position PF | School Duke | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’10″ | Weight 250
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-NBA Big with Consistent Scoring Ability
Paolo pulls out the top spot in the 2022 T$BB with an array of offensive skills, intriguing size, and a mature and humble demeanor. He will be entering the league with a mix of step back jumpers and post moves that most prospects hope to achieve by year ten, while demonstrating at Duke that he can adapt to variable talent around him. While his inconsistent defensive intensity is a reasonable knock, we’ve seen plenty of players succeed at increasing their effort at the NBA level if they have the measurables. The way he took the reins for Duke in the tourney made a statement. Just imagine how much of a terror he can be with more skilled guards and space. Paolo is my runaway #1 prospect.
2. bennedict mathurin
Position SG | School Arizona | Year Sophomore | Age 20 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 210
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-Star Guard and Scorer Champion Threat
Conjure up a smooth shooting stroke, extreme athleticism, and a fair dose of intensity, and Ben Mathurin appears. Rising above challenging circumstances in Canada, Mathurin is another player that came through as the clear star on a team loaded with NBA talent in Arizona. Defensive effort is another question mark, but similar to Paolo, I feel that his build will allow him to settle in at the NBA pace. Once Mathurin escapes the clogged paint of the two big system, I foresee this guy being an absolute bucket for years to come.
3. chet holmgren
Position C/PF | School Gonzaga | Year Freshman | Age 20 | Height 7’0″ | Weight 190
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-Star Level Big with All-Defense Stats
One of the most polarizing prospects in the draft, Chet has a tantalizing ceiling and a disastrous floor. So why am I hedging? Because I’m a coward? Perhaps. But I see him as an interesting big that can run the secondary break and shoot off the catch while using his defensive instincts to wreak havoc. His handle and jumper are less than inspiring, but in the open court he can be a killer. At Gonzaga he showed off his insane bounce and defensive anticipation with blocks and deflections, but he has a long way to go when it comes to defending the perimeter. The team that takes him will need to morph the bigs on their roster to fit his strengths, but I can see him being a unique threat long-term.
4. jaden ivey
Position SG/PG | School Purdue | Year Sophomore | Age 20 | Height 6’4″ | Weight 195
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-Star Level Combo Guard
It’s hard to find a more exciting athlete than Ivey, who uses his quickness to dominate the fast break. Nevertheless it was his shooting prowess this past year that elevated him up the boards, as his reliable stroke led to constant slashing chances and a bevy of assists. He played in a very structured system at Purdue that sometimes corralled his scoring potential, but he’ll be able to play both guard spots at a high level. Extremely high ceiling guy, and exactly what you look for at this stage of the draft.
5. jalen williams
Position SF | School Santa Clara | Year Junior | Age 21 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 195
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-Star Level 3 and D Wing
“Classic. Here comes T$ touting another consensus late 1st round wing as a top 5 guy. What a washed up fraud.”
Hear me out, though — Williams entered his collegiate career as a 6 foot point guard that slowly blossomed into the athlete we see today. Mix this with a humble personality and killer instincts and you’ve got the potential steal of the draft. We’ve seen multiple examples of small school stars emerging after 3-4 years and I think Jalen Williams can develop into the type of wing that every team is coveting right now.
6. jabari smith
Position PF/C | School Auburn | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’10″ | Weight 220
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All-Star Level Stretch 4
The sixth place ranking is no dig on Jabari, who uses his size and smooth shooting stroke to overpower the competition. Smith uses his height and a high release point to step into jumpers from all over the court, with a vintage KG-esque midrange game in his bag. I think that Jabari has all the tools to be an effective modern stretch 4, but due to his lack of competent rim protection and nonexistent handle, I’d be very surprised to see him rise to the level of franchise difference-maker.
7. bryce mcgowens
Position SF | School Nebraska | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’7″ | Weight 179
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Wing and 20+ PPG Scorer
Grabbing Tobias Harris with the seventh pick in the draft is a steal in the grand scheme. McGowens played on a dreadful Nebraska team with his brother, but was able to put his three level scoring on full display as a result. This is a bouncy athlete (who may not even be done growing in height, mind you) who attacks the rim relentlessly. He also demonstrated an even keel and admirable poise during interviews while the team was struggling. He’s raw, but there’s something here.
8. jeremy sochan
Position PF | School Baylor | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’9″ | Weight 230
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Elite Defender with All-Star Level Upside
It’s unique for a sixth man in college to rise this high in the draft, but the defensive showcase he put on during the second half of the UNC game was all the tape he needed to bust into the draft lottery. Sochan is a rare 1-5 defender who uses masterful positioning (and, perhaps just as effectively, trash talk) to pester his opponents. His jump shot and comfort with the ball is worlds behind his defense right now, but Draymond Green being a fair comp tells you all you need to know.
9. johnny davis
Position SG/PG | School Wisconsin | Year Sophomore | Age 20 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 195
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Three Level Bucket-Getter with Defensive Versatility
Johnny Davis is a bucket, and sometimes that alone is enough that you should be drafted in the lottery. He showed incredible development in two years with the Badgers and is someone that has the dog in him defensively to pair with his scoring. He’s not a strong facilitator as a lead guard so his NBA destiny may be as a sixth man, but his floor is high.
10. malaki branham
Position SG/SF | School Ohio State | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 180
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Guard with Fringe All-Star Level Scoring Skill
No one was expecting Malaki Branham to take home the Big Ten Freshman of the Year, but his steady scoring was undeniable. I see the floor for a player like Branham falling somewhere in the Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ballpark, but the guy is fearless and repeatedly demonstrated the ability to create jumpers off the dribble. He brings a skillset that is hard to find but a lack of size and strength will be what dooms him if he doesn’t pan out. If he continues to develop, he could end up in a starting lineup much sooner than expected and warrant a top 10 pick.
11. keegan murray
Position PF | School Iowa | Year Sophomore | Age 21 | Height 6’8″ | Weight 225
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Forward with Flexibility to Play Small-Ball Center
There is a lot to like about Keegan, who is potentially the most devastating fast break scorer in the draft. He’s on the older end of the spectrum, but his quote during the pre-draft process is that he “has the body of a 19 year old.” That comment shows that Murray undoubtedly has some great agents, but who can argue when you see him move around the perimeter effortlessly? His ranking is due to my belief that his upside in the half-court is limited, but I’m confident that he will be able to hang in the league.
12. dalen terry
Position SF | School Arizona | Year Sophomore | Age 19 | Height 6’7″ | Weight 195
T$ Likely Player Outcome: 4-7 Energy Wing with Upside
High motor with length, agility, and passable jump shot mechanics? Welcome to the NBA Lottery, Dalen Terry. Terry improved tremendously in his second year and served as the glue for a potent Arizona attack. Switchable wings are something that every team wants more of, and Terry’s personality reportedly crushing the pre-draft interviews only raised his stock.
13. aj griffin
Position SG/SF | School Duke | Year Freshman | Age 18 | Height 6’6” | Weight 222
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Caliber 3 and D Specialist
Griffin has dealt with major injuries throughout his high school career that severely altered his athleticism, but they had no effect on his jump shot mechanics. AJ shot a scorching percentage from 3 in college and played alongside NBA talent, but he was quietly one of the worst statistical defenders at his position. He brings some killer offensive qualities to the table, but projecting him higher than this would require a medical degree.
14. dyson daniels
Position PG/SG | School G League Ignite | Year Rookie | Age 19 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 199
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Caliber Combo Guard
The talent pool in the G League this time around doesn’t compare favorably to last year’s, but Dyson Daniels was the bright spot for a disappointing team. He has the size and upright handle to read defenses at an elite level from day one, with only his offensive skillset holding him back. I think he could steady the ship for a young team at the PG spot, but this ranking reflects visibly lacking long-term offensive upside.
15. mark williams
Position C | School Duke | Year Freshman | Age 20 | Height 7’0″ | Weight 242
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Stretch 5
The draft slot value of a center is a hotly contested. It makes sense — the modern NBA is dominated by a select few and steadied by a lot of players on mid-level exceptions. I think this is the right spot to place a bet on Mark, who is a huge shot blocker that has shown the ability to shoot from range during his pre-draft workouts. He’s a little plodding and slow to rebounds, but I could see him being a playable compliment to a team with talent already in place.
16. tyty washington Jr.
Position PG/SG | School Kentucky | Year Freshman | Age 20 | Height 6’3″ | Weight 197
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Crafty Lead Bench Guard
TyTy is tough to judge partially due to the amount of Sahvir Wheeler point guard minutes he endured during his stint with Kentucky. Washington projects as a combo guard, but he’s truly most comfortable with the ball in his hands and demonstrated an array of strong mid-range shots over the year. If he can hang in that Kentucky system, then I’m comfortable that he’s malleable enough to make his way into the rotation for an NBA team.
17. shaedon sharpe
Position SG | School Kentucky | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 200
T$ Likely Player Outcome: High Level Bench Scoring Punch
The “mystery man” of the draft, Sharpe ended up sitting out his Freshman season under strange circumstances. His high school tapes flash high level shooting touch, but also show someone who likes to shoot…a lot. There’s a possibility that Shaedon winds up a bargain, but his selfish game projects him as instant offense off the bench rather than a key player.
18. christian brauN
Position SG/SF | School Kansas | Year Junior | Age 21 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 218
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Sturdy 4-8 Guard with Winning Tendencies
Braun is an above average athlete who always seems to wind up in the correct place on the court. His role and minutes consistently increased during his time at Kansas, and his numbers are very impressive when you compare them to his overall usage. This is a player that you can plug in at the guard spot, run zero plays for, and will still find a way to impact the game positively.
19. jaden hardy
Position SG | School G League Ignite | Year Rookie | Age 19 | Height 6’4″ | Weight 198
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Heat Check Shooting Specialist
I am unsure who likes to shoot more between Jaden Hardy and Shaedon Sharpe, but this past season on the Ignite certainly didn’t do his draft stock any favors. A highly touted high school recruit, Hardy struggled to efficiently score at the G League level (roughly 17 PPG on 17 shots/game). What I like is that his touch is pure and he slowly improved throughout his twelve games. We saw last year with Jalen Green that the development league does prepare players for the travel and challenges of the NBA, and I feel like Hardy can embrace a bench role and then have a chance to flourish down the road.
20. collin gillespie
Position PG | School Villanova | Year Senior | Age 22 | Height 6’3″ | Weight 195
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Lead Back-Up Point Guard
Time and time again we see point guards with Gillespie’s skillset having an impact on the bench of NBA contenders, and I think that trend continues. While Gillespie is unlikely to be drafted, he’s someone that can run the bench unit of an NBA team with poise. His physical limitations and age put his upside at precisely zero, but he has the work ethic and determination to play in the league for years.
21. ej liddell
Position PF | School Ohio State | Year Junior | Age 21 | Height 6’7″ | Weight 240
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Sixth Man and Change of Pace Center
Whoever drafts EJ is getting a high energy big who can play much bigger than his counting stats suggest. The mid-range game faded for power forwards like Carlos Boozer as the 3 point line stretched out the court, so I don’t see Liddell matching up as a starter in the NBA. But that doesn’t mean there’s no place for him. He’s skilled with the ball and someone that his teammates will love. Think a young Udonis Haslem.
22. alondes williams
Position PG/SG | School Wake Forest | Year Senior | Age 23 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 210
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Sixth Man and High Level Shot Creator
Alondes took a strange route throughout college between JUCO and Oklahoma, but finally wound up in a situation where he could showcase himself as a lead guard at Wake Forest. He has a smooth jumper to go along with size and passing, but he was unable to translate that into consistent winning basketball. While he dazzles on Youtube film, a high turnover rate (5 per game during the stretch run) and defensive malaise leave him as a question mark. I ultimately think his talent is worth a bet at this point in the draft.
23. marjon beauchamp
Position PF/SF | School G League Ignite | Year Rookie | Age 21 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 199
T$ Likely Player Outcome: 5-8 Bench Wing
You can’t teach athleticism and MarJon has it in spades. He finished his G League run with much higher point totals than expected, and while part of that is due to an offensive flow created by Dyson Daniels, he also flashed the ability to score effectively while contested at rim. He’s a bit older than you would think and he’s unpolished, but talented enough for a team to take a swing in the 20s.
24. david roddy
Position PF | School Colorado State | Year Junior | Age 21 | Height 6’5” | Weight 252
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Point Forward with Defensive Ability to Start
As I write this, I’m trying to forget about how Colorado State crushed my March Madness bracket, but I can’t blame David Roddy. Players like PJ Tucker have shown that wider (read: thicc) players with ball skills have a place in the NBA on the perimeter. Roddy is a wide load in the paint but uses those advantages to run the secondary break and get opponents into foul trouble. I like David as a top 30 player in 2022.
25. jalen duren
Position C | School Memphis | Year Freshman | Age 18 | Height 6’11” | Weight 250
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Back-Up Center and Strong Rim Runner
Right now, Duren is a humongous moldable big with limited offensive talent. His length gave him a lot of chances for dunks and putbacks at Memphis, and he’s quick defensively. There’s a place for players like Jalen in the NBA but realistically it’s matchup dependent on the bench.
26. wendell moore Jr
Position SG/SF | School Duke | Year Junior | Age 20 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 213
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Switchable Combo Guard
Moore is not shy, that’s for sure. Early in the season he found himself taking the final shots for a powerhouse Duke team, and while that was short-lived, he was able to showcase his unique scoring abilities. He can defend every position on the perimeter with lateral quickness, and is comfortable initiating offense at the top of the key. Moore has limited upside, but has a fair chance to make his way into the rotation of a quality team.
27. blake wesley
Position SG | School Notre Dame | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 185
T$ Likely Player Outcome: 4-8 Slashing Wing with Scoring Pop
Wesley beat out a Senior for the starting spot in a pretty rigid Notre Dame program and didn’t look back. He’s a slasher that gets end to end with impressive speed, but his lack of long-range shooting skill mixed with flawed mechanics put him in the 20s of the big board. I can envision him as a quality rotation piece, but a bit of a project.
28. ochai agbaji
Position SG | School Kansas | Year Senior | Age 22 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 215
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench 3-Point Specialist
Agbaji is a drop down shooter, which he demonstrated on the big stage of March Madness. While he is slight for his position, there’s always a need for teams to add quality shooting for their bench. Ochai will be able to contribute in a meaningful way and space the floor from day one. His game is much more developed than his same-age peers in the draft.
29. tari eason
Position SF | School LSU | Year Sophomore | Age 21 | Height 6’8″ | Weight 216
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Wing and Energy Injection
Tari winds up lower on the big board due to his inconsistent shooting. He played as the sixth man for a strange LSU squad and actually led them in scoring, primarily off of run-outs and volume. If he can learn to play a role as an energy wing, then I think he could stay on a roster. If he tries to push his offensive game, then I will regret giving him a spot.
30. ousmane dieng
Position SF/PF | School New Zealand Breakers | Year Rookie | Age 19 | Height 6’10″ | Weight 216
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Wing with Upside to Become “Nic Batum-ish”
Someone will fall in love with Dieng’s frame earlier in the draft, and while I am not sold, he hangs in as “Mr. Irrelevant” on the big board thanks to his playmaking ability. It’s rare to see a young 6’10” player this comfortable with the ball in his hands, and while he could easily flame out if he doesn’t improve his scoring and defense, I’m not about to leave Giannis 2.0 off my board.
tmoneynba 