Welcome back everyone! We’re celebrating year 5 of the T$BB with the deepest class I have evaluated to date. As the NBA evolves, so do I. I’ve added what I believe the player’s most likely NBA outcome will be in place of comparisons (although I am sure you love my 90s knowledge, the exercise feels pointless).
Following a surprising NBA season, a few core beliefs have been cemented in my mind that I have carried into these rankings:
- The NBA is still dominated by players that handle & score in the half-court (if you are drafting highly, odds are you don’t have it and need to value it)
- Embiid & Jokic are the only Centers that can dictate an NBA Offense (if you’re not potentially on that tier as a big, you’re not a top 5 pick)
- Scoring without relying on officiating is king but being a strong perimeter defender is as important as ever
- The NBA G-League was a higher level of competition than any collegiate schedule could offer
Enjoy!
1. Jalen green
Position SG | School G-League Ignite | Year Rookie | Age 19 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 178
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All NBA Level Scoring Wing
Starting us off is a quick twitch, long athlete in Jalen Green who can score at all three levels. His defense is his weakness, but I was extremely impressed with his efficiency in the G-League this year. Outside of his stats & accolades, he was consistently praised by his coach (former player/coach Brian Shaw) and experienced teammates (Amir Johnson, Jarrett Jack) as someone that was eager to grow his game. I am betting on Green to grow into a scoring title contender and centerpiece of a quality offense, making him my top prospect in a loaded draft.
2. cade cunningham
Position SF | School Oklahoma State | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’8″ | Weight 220
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All NBA Level Wing with Secondary Playmaking Ability
Notice that I listed Cade as a small forward and not a point guard for a reason. I still believe that Cunningham’s maturity and half court scoring ability will translate at an All-NBA level, but I do not see him as the primary lead guard at the next level. That is not a knock on Cade, who I see as a strong secondary initiator, but leads me towards a Paul George comp rather than Luka. With the 2nd pick in the draft, I’ll sign up for that every time.
3. Alperen Şengün
Position C | School Beşiktaş | Year International | Age 19 | Height 6’10″ | Weight 243
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All NBA Level Center with Elite Halfcourt Creation Ability
As I watched the progress of former high-end Big Board centers (Bamba, Ayton, Wiseman to name a few), I see their value but vowed that they do not make the top 5 unless they can be an All-Star initiator: then I fire up some Turkish pro league Youtube. Sengun is bruising at the rim, but smooth in transition with the ball in his hands. This ranking comes with the belief that he will be a 3 point threat in the NBA, and someone that I see being able to control the game at a high level given his impact at such a young age. This is the next Luka level international prodigy.
4. Jonathan kuminga
Position SF/PF | School G-League Ignite | Year Rookie | Age 18 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 210
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Versatile All Star Caliber Wing
Evaluating prospects typically results in focusing on what they can’t do, but hear me out on Jonathan Kuminga: proto-type wing measurements, fluidity with the ball in his hands, confidence with strong jump shot form. This man came to the US at age 13 with just his brother to compete at the highest level, and truly believes that he is the best player in this draft. I like his swagger and believe that he will grow into an All-Star talent for the team willing to bet on him.
5. scottie barnes
Position PF/PG | School Florida State | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’8″ | Weight 225
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All NBA Defender with Playmaking Prowess
What would the T$ Big Board be if a defensive beast didn’t make his way into the top 5? Barnes is everything you look for in a defender at the next level, but what earns him this ranking is his skill with the ball in his hands. Leonard Hamilton’s FSU squads do not allow for some of the creativity that a player like Barnes possesses, but I think this could easily be a Ben Simmons level full court threat that can defend all 5 positions. Even if his jumpshot does not develop, that is worthy of a top 5 selection.
6. evan mobley
Position C | School USC | Year Freshman | Age 20 | Height 7’0″ | Weight 215
T$ Likely Player Outcome: All Star Level Center and Defensive Anchor
A defensive monster with killer instincts, Mobley has the upside to be better than this projection long term. He slides in my rankings because I do not believe he will become the Giannis style offensive threat that some see, but grabbing a double-double machine that doesn’t get played off the floor is going to be a win for whoever drafts Evan.
7. josh giddey
Position PG | School Adelaide 36ers | Year International | Age 18 | Height 6’7″ | Weight 205
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Point Guard with Extreme Versatility
This is a confident point guard with age and height on his side. Giddey grew through the same Australian League that we just dissected LaMelo in, and did so with similar assist/rebounding pedigree. His shooting will need to improve but with positional versatility being the hot topic in the NBA, I see a ton of value in a guard that can defend the perimeter while initiating the pick-and-roll.
8. JALEN Suggs
Position PG/SG | School Gonzaga | Year Freshman | Age 20 | Height 6’4″ | Weight 205
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Starting Guard with Defensive Toughness
A proven winner, Suggs is tough as nails and will immediately bring maximum effort to his NBA team. I am less confident in his ability to be the primary offensive option for his team, but he is going to elevate his peers’ games while succeeding at either guard spot. One comp (that would exceed this projection) which could land with more development: Jason Kidd.
9. cameron thomas
Position SG | School LSU | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’4″ | Weight 210
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Match-Up Nightmare with All Star Level Scoring Potential
You don’t become to all time leading scorer at Oak Hill Academy without having an elite offensive bag (and no conscience). Most see Cam Thomas as a solid 6th man given his size, and while I agree that is his floor, I could envision a player with this type of shot making ability in the pick-and-roll stepping it up a notch. With NBA bigs and more threats on the perimeter, this is my pick to be the steal of the draft for some lucky team (Sixers…???).
10. Ziaire williams
Position SF | School Stanford | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’8″ | Weight 185
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Flexible Starting Caliber Wing with Prototype Size
You can’t teach 6’8″. Ziaire was a high level high school prospect that struggled massively at Stanford, but I believe in his overall skillset to succeed at the next level. He will be a project, but a player that I see fitting into either forward rotation and having the ability to create his own shot as a second or third option. Along the same lines as Kuminga: I am betting on Williams’ upside.
11. isaiah todd
Position PF | School G-League Ignite | Year Rookie | Age 19 | Height 6’10″ | Weight 210
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Top 7 Rotation Stretch Big with Upside
Speaking of upside (the motto of his draft class), Isaiah Todd is yet another stud high school player that took the leap to the next level. This past season I was most impressed with his ability to shoot 3s confidently off quick rotations (36% on 3apg) and that he is another highly motivated youngster according to G-League vets. If a team is looking for an impact power forward, look no further.
12. moses moody
Position SG/SF | School Arkansas | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 205
T$ Likely Player Outcome: “3 and D” High Level Role Player
Arkansas had a veteran team returning this year, but it did not take long for more established starters to begin deferring to Moody. He plays within himself while having supreme confidence in his jump shot, and rightfully so. Moody may not have the shot creation upside, but he has always found a way to fit in at a high level regardless of his setting (played in HS with Cade, Barnes, and Sharpe). I expect that trend to continue at the next level.
13. quentin grimes
Position SG | School Houston | Year Junior | Age 21 | Height 6’5” | Weight 205
T$ Likely Player Outcome: High Level 3-Point Specialist
I am a sucker for the classic “big-time prospect that fails and then recovers at a smaller school,” and Grimes fits the bill. His jump shot has a high release that he can get off quickly and, most importantly, he shoots well off screens. Grimes’ development since his transfer out of Kansas has been impressive leading me to bet on his upside as a 40%+ 3 point threat in the NBA.
14. chris duarte
Position SF | School Oregon | Year Senior | Age 24 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 190
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Top 8 Rotation Level “3 and D” Wing
It’s easy to look at Duarte’s age and move along, but I believe this is going to be a solid NBA wing for the right team. He is long and surprisingly athletic, while accepting multiple different roles over the course of his Oregon run. Give me a player that will defend the opposition’s best wing, shoot 3s efficiently, and get up for a slam in traffic any day of the week.
15. james bouknight
Position SG | School UConn | Year Sophomore | Age 20 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 190
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Instant Offense
Bouknight is a confident ball-handler with a smooth game. His shooting percentages at UConn were a bit alarming, but he has been a “workout warrior” during the pre-draft process that has risen up draft boards. I think he settles in the middle as a solid scoring option off the bench rather than a potential 20 PPG guy, but that still is solid value once you leave the lottery.
16. daishen nix
Position PG/SG | School G-League Ignite | Year Rookie | Age 19 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 224
T$ Likely Player Outcome: High Level Bench Floor General
This concludes my obsession with Ignite prospects, but Nix simply stands out when you watch his game tape. He is extremely compact and big for his position, but brings great handle. I was most excited with the pace in which he operated against really great competition; no one could speed him up. He consistently ran a solid offense off the bench while flashing the potential to score at a high clip.
17. tre mann
Position SG/PG | School Florida | Year Sophomore | Age 20 | Height 6’5″ | Weight 190
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Top 8 Rotation Guard with Positional Versatility
Tre simply stands out on even a cursory viewing of any Florida game. He created shots for himself with really impressive ball skills (his crossover is insane) alongside a silky jumper. Mann was unafraid to dig in on the defensive end while he carried the scoring burden, leading to my overall expectations that he can hang in the playoff rotation at the next level.
18. joe wieskamp
Position SF | School Iowa | Year Junior | Age 21 | Height 6’6″ | Weight 212
T$ Likely Player Outcome: 3-Point Specialist with High Perimeter Defense Skills
Wieskamp is an underrated athlete who shot over 40% on roughly five 3s per game during his Iowa career. Taking a role player is never the sexy move on draft night, but players like Duncan Robinson are demonstrating the value of floor spacers that are not played off the court defensively. This man will compete and surprise folks in the NBA.
19. jeremiah robinson earl
Position PF/C | School Villanova | Year Sophomore | Age 20 | Height 6’9″ | Weight 230
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Top 8 Rotation Stretch Big
You can say I have Villanova bias, and that’s correct, but none of their recent players have let me down to this point. JRE will be able to hang as a back-up Center that can stretch the floor immediately, but I project that he could also bring it alongside a more traditional big with time. While a lot of the Centers in this class are relying on high upside, Robinson Earl will deliver whoever drafts him a polished player that can contribute quickly.
20. Day’Ron sharpe
Position C | School UNC | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’11″ | Weight 265
T$ Likely Player Outcome: High Energy Bench Stretch Big
At UNC, Sharpe served as the interior monster for the Tar Heels while being known for hustle plays around the rim. The buzz surrounding Day’Ron in pre-draft workouts is that he has the ability to shoot the cover off the ball (although he only attempted two 3s this past season) and that alone intrigues me enough to jump him up the board. Teams will continue to search for stretch Centers to spell (or compliment) their starters, and a bruiser like Sharpe could make a splash if that shot is real.
21. nah’shon “Bones” hyland
Position SG/PG | School VCU | Year Sophomore | Age 20 | Height 6’3″ | Weight 173
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Electric Bench Scoring Threat
This Wilmington product plays the game with an edge that is unique at his age. It is difficult to watch VCU games and not picture Hyland as the logical next evolution of Jamal Crawford, but I think he can serve as a strong bench playmaker in addition to his scoring prowess. His fearlessness shined through as he decided to play in the combine workouts and dominated his competition; I believe in his skillset and drive.
22. jared butler
Position SG | School Baylor | Year Junior | Age 20 | Height 6’3″ | Weight 195
T$ Likely Player Outcome: NBA Reserve Guard with Scoring Pop
I am slightly concerned with Butler’s medicals entering the NBA (was flagged at the combine for a heart condition) but I am a fan of his game if fully healthy. This was the engine behind the Baylor NCAA title, and while he is undersized, Butler has the potential to elevate any bench unit with instant offense and elite basketball IQ.
23. ayo dosunmu
Position SG | School Illinois | Year Junior | Age 21 | Height 6’4″ | Weight 194
T$ Likely Player Outcome: High Floor Bench Scoring Option
As we continue down my “bench player” tier of draft prospects, Ayo projects as another scoring guard that can either dominate the ball or be a threat in the corner. The overall competitiveness that Dosunmu brought to a struggling Illini program over the past 3 years lands him on the BB over some less established prospects with potentially more upside.
24. davion mitchell
Position PG | School Baylor | Year Junior | Age 22 | Height 6’2″ | Weight 205
T$ Likely Player Outcome: High Energy Back-Up Point Guard
With the ability to change a game on the defensive end, Davion will be a nightmare for opposing guards in the backcourt. His development on his jumper this season got him into the draft lottery of some mocks, but I am more comfortable projecting him as a really solid back-up given his age and size limitations. Even without too much improvement, Mitchell will fit instantly as a TJ McConnell type guard that is coveted league wide.
25. keon johnson
Position SF | School Tennessee | Year Freshman | Age 19 | Height 6’5” | Weight 186
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench High Energy Super Athlete
After posting some historic Draft Combine athletic testing numbers, it is clear as day that Johnson is a big-time athlete. While he is wiry, Keon showed a knack for jumping passing lanes and making electrifying plays in transition at Tennessee. While I am worried about his staying power if he does not develop in the halfcourt, the upside earns him a spot in the first round.
26. kai jones
Position C | School Texas | Year Sophomore | Age 20 | Height 6’11″ | Weight 218
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Back-Up Center with High Motor
Texas rolled out a recruiting class of Centers over the years that was more perplexing than Shaka Smart’s everchanging hairline, and it hindered Kai Jones’ draft stock. I believe that he has been playing completely out of position and a team that turns him into a true rim-running big (think Richaun Holmes) will be happy with his value at the 26th spot.
27. Franz wagner
Position SF/PF | School Michigan | Year Sophomore | Age 19 | Height 6’9″ | Weight 220
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Versatile Bench Wing
Another player that I have a bit lower than consensus, Franz is a versatile young prospect. The classic “glue guy,” Wagner co-exists with different personnel with ease, but I do not feel strongly that any of his other skills are special enough to make him a starting caliber player. There is always a need to fill out a roster with these types of “plug and play” wings, but I would temper expectations for whoever takes him in the lottery.
28. corey kispert
Position SF | School Gonzaga | Year Senior | Age 22 | Height 6’7″ | Weight 220
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench 3 Point Specialist
Age and lack of athleticism land Kispert at the back end of the big board, but teams can never have enough shooting. The upside is low (rarity this year), but at this stage of the draft I would be taking a swing on a player that can fit a specific role rather than overthinking or doing too much projecting.
29. Jaden springer
Position PG | School Tennessee | Year Freshman | Age 18 | Height 6’4″ | Weight 204
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench Guard Defensive Specialist
The defensive potential that Springer showed in his Freshman year puts him right up there with Mitchell, and any team can use that on their bench. I am concerned with his ability to handle the ball and contribute at the NBA level on offense, but he could end up exceeding expectations if that shot translates.
30. trey murphy III
Position PF/SF | School Virginia | Year Junior | Age 21 | Height 6’9” | Weight 206
T$ Likely Player Outcome: Bench “3 and D” Role Player
A consistent shooter for Virginia, Murphy rounds out this year’s big board. He has raw skills with the ball in his hands (flashed some talent but inconsistent), but can contribute as a versatile defender while making open 3s from day one. He could easily not pan out, but I would bet that a playoff team could use him off the bench.
JUST MISSED THE CUT
In no particular order, the following players all got consideration (deep class): Jason Preston (Ohio), Marcus Zegarowski (Creighton), Sharife Cooper (Auburn), Josh Primo (Alabama), Jalen Johnson (Duke), Usman Garuba (Spain), Greg Brown (Texas), Isaiah Jackson (Kentucky), Luka Garza (Iowa)
BONUS – TP RankingS (A.k.a. ccplayahata)
1. Evan Mobley
2. Scottie Barnes
3. Jalen Suggs
4. Jalen Green
5. Cade Cunningham
6. Alperen Segun
7. Josh Giddey
8. Jalen Johnson
9. Jaden Springer
10. Moses Moody
11. Franz Wagner
12. Jonathan Kuminga
13. Isaiah Jackson
14. Jared Butler
15. Trey Murphy III
16. Quentin Grimes
17. Keon Johnson
18. Sharife Cooper
19. James Bouknight
20. Ziaire Williams
21. BJ Boston
22. Isaiah Todd
23. Greg Brown
24. Cameron Thomas
25. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
26. Usman Garuba
27. Davion Mitchell
28. Ayo Dosunmu
29. Kai Jones
30. Corey Kispert
tmoneynba 